Merced weekend weather for November 13 to 15, 2026 brings rain to Friday, then a cooler, mostly dry weekend with lingering clouds: showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm on Friday near 73 degrees, a partly sunny Saturday near 67 after a small morning rain chance, and a mostly cloudy Sunday near 65. The National Weather Service forecast for Merced is the source for every figure below, and it points to a weekend that rewards flexible plans.
This outlook covers the forecast for Merced and the surrounding Merced County communities, from the valley floor up through the foothills. Forecasts for foothill towns such as McSwain, Catheys Valley, and Mariposa tend to run a few degrees cooler at higher elevation and can see Friday's rain a little earlier, so adjust your plans for the hills. For everything else happening over the same days, pair this outlook with the weekend guide for November 13 to 15.
Merced Weekend Weather: The Three-Day Forecast
The forecast below is compiled from the National Weather Service point forecast and zone forecast for Merced, California, as posted on forecast.weather.gov. The big picture: a fall storm system brings showers and possibly a thunderstorm to Friday, then drier conditions settle in behind it for a cooler, mostly dry Saturday and Sunday with lingering clouds. Overnight lows stay in the upper 40s to low 50s, so mornings and evenings are cool while afternoons remain pleasant for mid-November.
Friday, November 13
Showers Likely- High
- Near 73°F
- Low
- Near 52°F
The wet day of the weekend. The National Weather Service forecast for Merced calls for partly sunny skies turning to showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, about a 60 percent chance, with a high near 73 degrees, then an overnight low near 52. Rain timing can shift a few hours either way, so treat the evening as the indoor window and keep an eye on the forecast through the day.
Saturday, November 14
Partly Sunny- High
- Near 67°F
- Low
- Upper 40s°F
A 20 percent chance of rain lingers before about 10 a.m., then skies turn partly sunny with a high near 67 degrees, about 6 degrees cooler than Friday. Saturday night turns mostly cloudy with an overnight low in the upper 40s, around 48 to 49 degrees. The late morning and afternoon look like the reliable window, with a mostly dry day overall in the current run.
Sunday, November 15
Mostly Cloudy- High
- Near 65°F
- Low
- Not confirmed in latest text
Mostly cloudy with about a 20 percent chance of rain and a high near 65 degrees, the coolest afternoon of the weekend. The Sunday night low was not captured in the latest NWS text at writing, and nearby nights run in the upper 40s to low 50s, so plan on a cool evening either way. Cloudy but mostly dry makes it a good day for a mix of indoor and outdoor plans.
A note on certainty: Friday's rain is the most confident part of this outlook, with the NWS putting showers likely at about a 60 percent chance and a thunderstorm possible, though rain timing and totals can still shift. Saturday and Sunday are the flexible days: each carries only about a 20 percent chance of rain, so they look mostly dry, but a passing shower is not ruled out, and the Sunday overnight low is not yet confirmed in the forecast text. Check the National Weather Service forecast for Merced, linked in the Forecast Source box below, the day before you head out.
Weekend Activities That Fit a Rainy Friday and a Mostly Dry Weekend
This weekend rewards flexible plans: rainy on Friday, partly sunny and cooler on Saturday, and cloudy with a small rain chance on Sunday. All three suggestions below are public, open to everyone, and work for families, couples, and solo outings alike. Each one has an indoor option built in for the rainy windows.
1. Friday: an indoor evening at The Merced Theatre
With showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm on Friday, this is the indoor pick of the weekend. Merced Shakespearefest presents Macbeth at The Merced Theatre, 301 W Main Street, with a 7:30 PM performance Friday, November 13, part of the run covered in the weekend guide for November 13 to 15. For a free indoor morning, the Tiny Tales storytime at the Merced Main Library runs at 10:30 AM Friday, a dry start to a rainy day.
2. Saturday: a morning market, then a partly sunny afternoon outdoors
Saturday's 20 percent rain chance sits before about 10 a.m., and the late morning and afternoon look like the reliable window. The Merced Certified Farmers' Market runs every Saturday from 8:00 to 11:00 AM at 16th and Canal Street, with the free weekend guide listing the Courthouse Museum's free 1:00 to 4:00 PM hours as a dry fallback. For the partly sunny afternoon, the 3.5-mile lakeside loop at Lake Yosemite Regional Park is an easy walk or bike ride on a cool, calm day.
3. Sunday: the Atwater Flea & Farmers Market, rain or shine
Sunday is mostly cloudy with a small rain chance, and the Atwater Flea & Farmers Market runs every Sunday from 7:00 AM to 3:00 PM at 2877 Atwater Boulevard, rain or shine, so it genuinely fits a day with uncertain skies. Admission is free with $2 Sunday parking. If you would rather stay inside, the free Courthouse Museum is open on weekend afternoons, and the free weekend guide for November 14 to 15 rounds up the dry options.
All of these plans bend with the forecast. If Friday's rain arrives earlier or later than expected, the theatre show is fixed to the evening while the library storytime covers the morning. Saturday and Sunday carry only small rain chances, so a light layer and one flexible window covers every scenario in a weekend like this.
This outlook is published equally for everyone in Merced County. Every spot above is public, open to all, and described as-is, and the forecast applies to every community in the service area, from Atwater to Winton, Livingston, Turlock, and Chowchilla.
Frequently Asked Questions About Merced Weather This Weekend
What is the weather in Merced this weekend?
A changeable late-fall weekend. Per the National Weather Service forecast for Merced, Friday, November 13 is the wet day with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm near 73 degrees, Saturday turns partly sunny after a 20 percent morning rain chance with a high near 67, and Sunday is mostly cloudy with a 20 percent rain chance and a high near 65 degrees.
Will it rain in Merced County this weekend?
The main rain window is Friday, when the National Weather Service forecast for Merced puts showers likely at about a 60 percent chance, with a thunderstorm possible. Saturday and Sunday each carry only about a 20 percent chance of rain, so most of the weekend looks mostly dry, but a passing shower is not ruled out on either day.
Will it be cold this weekend?
Not during the day, but nights turn cool: Friday night drops near 52 degrees and Saturday night into the upper 40s. The Sunday night low was not captured in the latest forecast text, and nearby nights run in the upper 40s to low 50s, so a jacket for mornings and evenings covers it while afternoons stay in the mid-60s to low 70s.
Where can I check the latest Merced forecast?
The National Weather Service publishes the official forecast for Merced at forecast.weather.gov. Check it the day before your plans, since rain odds and temperatures can shift a few degrees as the weekend gets closer.
Highs, lows, and conditions in this outlook are taken from the National Weather Service 7-day forecast for Merced, California, as published on forecast.weather.gov, cross-checked against the NWS zone forecast for Merced-Madera-Mendota (CAZ302) at the time of writing. The NWS forecast is the official, most current source for Merced County weather, and its zone forecast covers the wider service area, including the foothill communities.
The Seller's Agent. Monica combines deep Merced County market knowledge with a polished, confident approach that gets results for home sellers across the Central Valley. Serving Merced, Atwater, McSwain, Livingston, Turlock, Winton, Chowchilla, Catheys Valley, and Mariposa.
Make the most of the weekend, Merced.
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