First-Time Buyer Report:
October 2026

Published October 20, 2026 · Data through September 2026

How does the Merced County market look for first-time home buyers in October 2026? The short answer: more choice, steadier prices. Roughly 180 homes are listed under $400,000 countywide, for-sale counts in Merced's main ZIP codes were up sharply year over year in September, and C.A.R.'s September county median came in unchanged year over year after the summer run-up. Homes still move in about a month, so the buyers who win are the ones ready to act. Here is the full October 2026 first-time buyer report for Merced County, with sources and data months noted throughout.

Merced first-time buyer market: active inventory in October 2026

The headline number for the October 2026 Merced first-time buyer market is inventory. Homes.com listed roughly 180 homes for sale under $400,000 across Merced County at the time of writing. That figure changes daily as listings come and go, so treat it as the direction of travel rather than a precise count, and the direction is clearly up.

RealtyTrac's ZIP-level data for September 2026 shows for-sale counts in Merced's three main ZIP codes well above where they were a year earlier: 95340 up 89%, 95341 up 106%, and 95348 up 90% versus September 2025. Countywide, the FRED listing-count series climbed through the summer to 703 listings in June 2026 from 651 in February. One caveat on how you read these numbers: sources count listings differently. A "for sale" tally like RealtyTrac's is a wider basket than a strictly active count. Resideline's tighter active-listing count for 95348 in October 2026, for example, was 32. The consistent signal across all of them is that buyers have more options this fall than they had last year.

Where does that affordable inventory sit? The clearest price tiers in the county data are in Merced's own ZIP codes. RealtyTrac's September 2026 medians put 95341 at $336,300, down 8.3% year over year, 95340 near $391,000, and 95348 near $427,000 in October. Merced city as a whole sat around $415,000, and the countywide median across all home types was about $421,000 (Redfin, three months ending August 2026). These are the price points a Merced County first-time buyer is most likely to be shopping.

Days on market: how fast starter homes are selling

Pace is steady. Redfin's county-level median was about 35 days on market for the three months ending August 2026, down from 42 days a year earlier, and Merced city sat at 39 days in October 2026. An honest caveat: the major data sites do not publish a days-on-market figure filtered specifically to the under-$400,000 tier, so the county and city medians are the best available proxy. In practice, a correctly priced starter home in Merced County still goes under contract within about a month, and homes priced against the freshest comparables are the ones that move first.

Month over month: how this October compares with September

The freshest county-level reading landed just before this report. C.A.R. published its September 2026 California and county sales and price report on October 19, 2026, and it shows Merced County's existing single-family median unchanged year over year (0.0%). That is the shift to watch: August's report, released September 16, had the county median at $439,740, up 5.1% month over month from July's $418,500 and up 7.3% year over year, with closed sales up 22.6% month over month. Moving from a 7.3% year-over-year gain in August to a flat 0.0% reading in September means prices pulled back after the summer run-up. The exact September median in dollars sits in the report's county data table; the verified headline is the flat comparison.

The other two signals point the same way. Inventory is climbing month over month, not shrinking: the county listing count rose through the summer, and September ZIP-level for-sale counts were up sharply. And pace held steady, with county days on market around 35 and Merced city at 39. Put together, the month-over-month story for first-time buyers is a market that was tight in the spring and has loosened through the fall, with more homes, flatter prices, and a pace that still rewards a prepared buyer.

One practical tip for first-time buyers this month

Get pre-approved before you shop, and get it done this week. With inventory up and prices flat, the buyers who actually close this fall are the ones who can move when the numbers work. A pre-approval letter tells you the exact price ceiling a lender will support, which turns "about $336,000 in 95341" from a market statistic into your own offer range. Then define your must-haves in writing: price range, preferred ZIP codes, home type, and commute. That is not a wish list to keep you browsing; it is the filter that lets you act decisively when a home fits your budget and your needs, because a well-priced starter still goes under contract in about a month. For a closer look at where to start, my Top 5 Neighborhoods for First-Time Buyers guide walks through Merced, Atwater, Turlock, Livingston, and McSwain.

Down payment assistance for Merced County first-time buyers

Real, current down payment help exists for Merced County buyers, and it is worth putting on the table early because several programs require homebuyer education and income documentation before you make an offer.

CalHFA MyHome Assistance Program

CalHFA's flagship MyHome Assistance Program is a deferred-payment junior loan of up to 3.5% of the purchase price or appraised value with a CalHFA FHA first mortgage (3% with CalHFA Conventional, VA, or USDA first mortgages). It carries around 1% simple interest and no monthly payment; the balance is repaid when the home is sold, refinanced, or the first mortgage is paid off. Requirements include first-time buyer status, owner occupancy, a homebuyer education certificate, a CalHFA first mortgage, and county income limits. It is a loan, not a grant, but it is one of the most used tools of its kind in the state.

County of Merced Homebuyer Assistance Program

The County of Merced's Homebuyer Assistance Program, administered with Self-Help Enterprises and funded through state HCD HOME and CalHome grants, is active countywide. It provides deferred homebuyer-assistance financing of up to 49% of the total loan amount, capped at $100,000, used alongside an FHA or Conventional first mortgage. It requires first-time buyer status (or no home ownership in the prior three years), a minimum 1% down payment, income within county limits, and completion of a HUD- or CalHome-approved homebuyer education course. Funds are first-come, first-served, so contacting Self-Help Enterprises early matters. Their number is (559) 651-1000.

Other programs worth checking

CalHFA's Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan reopened for applications on February 24, 2026, offering up to 20% of the purchase price, capped at $150,000, for down payment and closing costs, with a first-generation homebuyer requirement and random selection rather than first-come placement. USDA Rural Development Section 502 loans provide 0% down financing in eligible rural parts of Merced County, with a 2026 loan limit of $341,900; not every address qualifies, so the USDA eligibility map is the deciding tool. CalHFA's Zero Interest Program (ZIP) adds a 0% interest second loan for closing costs alongside a CalPLUS first mortgage and can be combined with MyHome.

One honest status note: the City of Merced's own CalHome First-Time Homebuyer Program is currently closed. The city's housing division states that first-time homebuyer and owner-occupied rehabilitation funding has expired and is not currently available, so Merced city buyers should plan around the county program and CalHFA rather than the city program, and check the city's housing programs page in case it reopens.

Where the affordable inventory is this month

The county's entry-price inventory concentrates in its larger cities, and each has its own rhythm. The service-area guides below are the best place to start comparing price points and pace:

• Merced (95340, 95341, 95348): The deepest pool of homes, including the county's most affordable ZIP, 95341. See the Merced first-time buyer market guide.
• Atwater (95301): A steady supply of entry-level homes along the Highway 99 corridor. See the Atwater home buying guide.
• Turlock (95380, 95382): A larger city with a range of starter neighborhoods. See the Turlock market guide.
• Livingston and Winton: The entry-price end of the county, with thin but affordable inventory. See the Livingston guide and Winton guide.
• Chowchilla (93610): Affordable housing with newer construction on the county's north edge. See the Chowchilla guide.

For the countywide seller's-market context behind these entry-level numbers, the October 2026 Merced real estate market update covers the overall median, months of supply, and pace. The two reports read together give you both sides of the market: the whole county and the first-time buyer tier within it.

Sources and method

Every figure above is drawn from a named source with its data month noted, because sources publish on different schedules. The primary sources are the C.A.R. September 2026 sales and price report (released October 19, 2026), the C.A.R. August 2026 report (released September 16, 2026), the CalHFA MyHome program page, Redfin's Merced County housing market page, RealtyTrac ZIP-level market trends for 95340, 95341, and 95348, Homes.com's Merced County listings, Resideline ZIP-level data, and the FRED listing-count series for Merced County. The September C.A.R. median was confirmed only as unchanged year over year (0.0%) from the published release; the exact dollar figure in the county table was not independently confirmed on this run. The next county report, for October, is expected mid-November, and this page will be updated when it lands.

One Fair Housing note: this report is written for equal service to all prospective buyers. Housing opportunities are available to everyone regardless of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or family status, and every buyer should expect the same quality of service. I do not steer buyers toward or away from any area, and I encourage everyone to judge a community by its own facts, amenities, and commute.

A note from Monica

My practice centers on sellers, and this report exists because a healthy buyer market is the other half of a healthy seller market. When first-time buyers can find homes they can afford and financing that works, sellers get qualified offers and smoother sales. If you are buying, I am glad to point you to resources and trusted local professionals, and if you are selling or thinking about it, that is exactly what I do every day. Either way, a conversation is free and carries no obligation: reach out through my contact page or call (209) 345-3836. And if you want to know who you would be working with, read more about my background here.